Wichita, Kansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

275
FXUS63 KICT 251714
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1214 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered storms with heavy rainfall potential will continue early
this morning, and again for the afternoon and evening hours.

- Dangerous heat returns Sunday and continues through Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 217 AM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025

Numerous storms continue this morning from western OK through
south central KS and into northeast KS. This is generally along
a weak stationary boundary with low level jet maintaining
moisture transport into the area. In addition, regional 88Ds
show what looks to be an MCV lifting across the TX Panhandle and
moving into northwest OK. PW`s remain over 2" which is around
150% of normal for this time of year. This is resulting in very
high rainfall rates and associated flooding with the stronger
storms.

We should see an overall decrease in coverage trend as the morning
hours progress as low level jet and associated moisture
transport decreases. However, confidence is increasing in an
uptick in storms late this afternoon into the early evening
mainly associated with the MCV. Just like Thu, very high
instability will be in place this afternoon with CAPE values
around 3,000J/kg. In addition, deep layer shear will be higher
than it was Thu, which may lead to better storm organization and
slightly higher severe chances. The high PW airmass will also
remain in place which will once again bring very high rainfall
rates and potential flooding. Will go ahead and leave the flood
watch in place and wouldn`t be surprised if the day shift ends
up extending it out in time.

By Sat morning, the better storm chances will start to shift east as
the MCV lifts across the Missouri Valley.  For Sat night into Sun,
upper ridging, that is currently over the Southeast CONUS, will
start to build west across the Lower Mississippi Valley into the
Southern Plains. This will shut rainfall chances off and bring a
return to above normal temperatures. For Sun-Tue we will be looking
for highs generally in the 95-100 degree range with heat indices
around 105 for much of the area. There is some model agreement
between the GFS and ECMWF in some upper energy tracking over the
Northern/Central Plains and helping to break the upper ridge
down, allowing some slightly cooler air for the end of the work
week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1203 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025

MVFR conditions continue to impact the area and will continue
throughout the afternoon. Showers and storms are starting to
develop in central Kansas which should begin to impact
KRSL/KGBD/KSLN over the next few hours. Coverage will most
likely increase southward and eventually impact KHUT/KICT by
around 21Z. Conditions should begin to improve by 04Z as the
entire convective system moves eastward.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ048>053-067>070-
082-083.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RBL
AVIATION...SGS